Top 5 Trends Affecting Business Aviation Operators in 2024

Business aviation is gaining altitude according to some of the people who know it best – owners and operators of business jets. Here are five key findings from Honeywell’s latest Global Business Aviation Outlook.

What’s ahead for business aviation? Look for answers in Honeywell’s Global Business Aviation Outlook, an authoritative guide we’ve been using for more than 30 years to forecast business aircraft purchasing plans and other factors affecting the health of this dynamic industry.

Here are five key findings from our latest report 2023 Global Business Aviation Outlook:

1. Operators have ambitious aircraft purchasing plans.
   
   

When it comes to new aircraft deliveries, things are definitely looking up. We project 810 new aircraft deliveries in 2024 and 860 in 2025, as operators execute ambitious acquisition plans and OEMs catch up on their considerable backlogs. In all, we forecast 8,100 new aircraft deliveries between 2024 and 2033. New aircraft sales are expected to total $278 billion in that period.

Order backlogs are causing long wait times for new-aircraft buyers, so many are turning to the used jet market. Though the used market is also tight, operators expect to replace 27% of their fleets with “new-to-us” business aircraft in the next five years.

 

2. Buyers tend to favor large-cabin, long-range jets.
   
   

Many buyers are looking to upgrade their flying experience by acquiring larger business jets that can fly farther, faster and with more amenities. Cabin size is a primary motivation for purchasing aircraft in this size class, which includes long range, ultra-long range and very high speed ultra-long-range models, as well as airliner size business aircraft.

These large-cabin jets will account for 37% of projected aircraft sales over the next decade and more than 68% of the value of all business aircraft purchases.

 

3. New buyers recognize the value of business aviation.
   
   

The trend toward more first-time aircraft owners that began during the global pandemic continues as more companies and individual owners recognize the extraordinary benefits of business aircraft access.

New operators generally select small-cabin business jets for their first aircraft. As a result, we anticipate light-medium jet purchases to grow about 3% per year over the next decade, adding more than 500 aircraft to manufacturers’ production plans. These aircraft will boost total flying hours by about 6%.

 

4. Many operators are logging more hours in the air.
   
   

The vast majority of operators – 93% - expect to fly at least as much in 2024 as they did in 2023, with 29% planning to log even more hours in the air. Flight activity has risen about 10% in the last five years, according to survey participants, many of whom credit more vibrant economic conditions for the upswing.

The increase in flight hours is one reason demand for new and used aircraft is growing. Operators plan to make aircraft purchases equivalent to 19% of their current fleets in the next five years. As they increase fleet size by about 3% overall – the highest growth number in a decade.

 

5. Sustainability is a priority for most flight departments.
   
   

The regulatory environment is evolving as the aviation industry is setting ambitious decarbonization goals and many organizations are folding flight departments into their holistic approach to environmental, social and governance (ESG).

Two-thirds of flight departments plan to increase their sustainability efforts or start new ones. Some plan to fly less or fly slower to save fuel. Others expect to leverage carbon offsets to reduce their impact. But most believe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is the most promising approach for delivering near-term results. Twelve percent already use SAF blends in their aircraft and 39% expect to move in that direction.

For the Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook, we interviewed more than 100 nonfractional business aircraft operators who shared their aircraft-purchasing plans and provided other valuable insights about their intentions, preferences, and concerns. We also gathered and analyzed data from global economic forecasts, industry analysts’ reports, aircraft manufacturers’ development and production schedules, and other sources.