Honeywell released its 23rd annual Business Aviation Forecast on Oct. 19, predicting sales and deliveries of as many as 9,450 new business jets worth $280 billion over the next 10 years.
Survey results were unveiled in advance of the 2014 National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Meeting and Convention. Honeywell surveyed more than 1,500 flight departments from around the world for the outlook.
Deliveries of between 650 and 675 aircraft are projected in 2014, a single-digit increase from last year’s survey. The improvement is largely due to program schedule recoveries, new model introductions and additional fractional uptake.
“2015 industry deliveries are anticipated to be up modestly again, reflecting momentum from several new model introductions and some gains linked to incremental global economic growth,” said Brian Sill, President, Business and General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace.
Operators interviewed plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 23 percent of their fleets over the next five years either as a replacement or in addition to their current fleet, the survey found. Purchase plans are more aggressive in Europe (31 percent), Brazil (49 percent) and other high-growth regions. North America continues to account for about 60 percent of projected aircraft demand.
Of the new jet purchase plans, 19 percent are expected to occur by the end of 2015, while 14 and 22 percent are scheduled for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Purchase timing shifted somewhat later compared with last year’s survey and leads to a modest slowdown in projected demand for the near term. However, presold positions for new models entering service in 2015-2016 should mute this effect on recorded deliveries.
Sill noted that Honeywell continues to see demand for larger business jet models.
“The strong desire for larger-cabin aircraft with greater range and advanced avionics is seen again in this year’s survey. We are also seeing some improved interest in midsize and small-cabin models this year.”
“As a full-spectrum supplier, we are pleased to see aircraft in every class with significant Honeywell equipment content among the most popular models cited in the operator survey,” he added.